As we get closer to Wal-Mart's deadline for requiring suppliers to implement RFID, the real status of compliance is coming out -- via unidentified sources.

Sound like the warehouse manager's version of Deep Throat?

CIO Magazine's "Tag, You're Late" suggests that many suppliers subject to Wal-Mart's RFID mandate are not ready to meet the mega-retailer's January deadline. They'll do the least amount they can in the near term to meet Wal-Mart's requirements.

This is no surprise to most observers. But seeing the story being reported through anonymous sources is very telling about those sources' state of mind:

"For the anonymous executive in charge of supply chain operations, it's been a nightmare trying to get to compliance. For one, the 'squiggle' RFID tags, which are the mostly widely available and cheapest, are failing because some of his products skew the radio frequency signal. So he's having to use a more expensive tag.

The next generation of tags, which he's hoping will help solve some of these problems, most likely won't be available until the middle of 2005. And it's anyone's guess how much those new tags will cost.

As to the status of his ongoing warehouse RFID pilot, which should be cranking right now: 'Frankly, we've not even opened up the warehouse door yet,' he says.

The supply chain executive thinks the technology just isn't there. 'I don't think RFID is a mature application at this point and time,' he says. 'I think it's probably two years premature.'

The supply chain manager at another top 100 supplier, who also insisted on anonymity, agrees. 'Our experiences in our pilot have shown that this is not ready for prime time,' he says. 'The tag and reader performance problems are a long way from being solved.'"

Of course, none of this means that RFID will fail as a tech movement.

It just means that we are living through the hype cycle described with great foresight in this AT Kearney report.

It's going to take longer for businesses to start seeing the benefits of RFID than some of the early, optimistic predictions suggested. And the path to realizing those benefits will be littered along the way with missed deadlines, rocky initiatives, and deflated expectations.

But that's not unusual. In fact, it is a natural part of the technology adoption cycle.

We're still in the hype phase but about to enter the "trough of disillusionment phase."

You can expect to read many more supplier reports like this over the coming months. Just remember that we inevitably have to go through this phase to get to the full benefits that RFID can provide.